The volatile start to Donald Trump’s first presidency laid the foundation for a democratic recovery two years later.
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Republican candidate Donald Trump has won the 2024 US presidential election. In his victory speech, he said this will be a “golden age” for the country.
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If Texas Democrats were looking for silver linings among the thunderous clouds that rained down on them Tuesday, this is one: The last time Donald Trump won the White House, they came out pretty well in the midterm elections two years ago. later.
Everyone remembers that Democratic former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 percentage points of unseating Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. Less remembered is that Democrat Justin Nelson was just over 3 points ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. , and a little-known accountant named Mike Collier trailed Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Republican from Houston, by less than 5 points.
O’Rourke had tons of money, but Nelson and Collier were both on a shoestring against a pair of well-funded and well-known Republican incumbents. Sure, close doesn’t count and all the Democratic candidates statewide were defeated. But it was the party’s best performance since Democrats actually won statewide races in Texas.
But there was a reason for Democrats to celebrate in the aftermath of the 2018 general election. They picked up 12 seats in the state House. That was their biggest win since those days of winning everything, or almost all races on the November ballot.
So with Trump returning to Washington, does this mean happier days lie ahead for Texas Democrats? Two answers: maybe and maybe not.
Here’s why it could be. The party in charge of the White House generally has miserable interims. This is largely due to the fact that voters are fickle. They will elect a president with high expectations and turn on him if he falls even slightly short of meeting them.
Moreover, new presidents are often overreachers. Just look at President Barack Obama’s first two years in office, especially that little legislative initiative called Obamacare. And not in a good way. Granted, it grew in popularity among voters over the years, but when it was first introduced, a large portion of voters feared, dreaded, and hated it.
And then there were other factors, like the federal bailout of failing banks and collapsing auto companies that smacked of socialism in the minds of some.
Texas Democrats woke up on election morning 2010 comfortable in the knowledge that they were holding their own 74 of the 150 seats at the Texas House. By the time they went to bed, they had 49. The Republicans had 101. That’s a supermajority with one seat left.
Now let’s look at Trump’s midterm elections, eight years later. The so-called Mueller investigation into whether Russia helped him win in 2016 hung in the air. And Trump openly feuded with news organizations and tweeted insults against world leaders and even against his own foreign minister.
And then there were the news videos and photos of the children of undocumented immigrants being housed in cage-like compartments, and stories of families being separated at the border. Not only did Democrats make gains in Texas, but they did so across the country, gaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives and maintaining their majority in the Senate.
For both Trump and Obama, the midterm elections can be described as “buyer’s remorse” after the previous cycle’s presidential elections.
This is the downside for the Democrats. Mid-term elections do not always go badly for the party in power. Consider that just two years ago, Republicans confidently predicted a “red wave” for Democratic President Joe Biden’s midterm elections. Republicans made gains, in Texas and across the country, but these were relatively modest compared to the midterm blowouts between Obama and Trump.
Republicans gained four seats in the Texas House and only nine in Congress.
A lot can and will happen between now and the 2026 midterm elections. The economy could get better or worse. Wars abroad could end, or more could begin. Or, perish the thought, another pandemic could strike.
One thing that is probably predictable is that Trump’s basic temperament and behavior will not change. We know that because that hasn’t been the case since he was a reality TV guy turned presidential candidate, then president, then ex-president, then presidential candidate again, and now president-elect.
The erratic personality entering the 2018 midterm elections unnerved so many voters, who were unaccustomed to presidents behaving in any manner, but the presidency has been normalized, so much so that Trump returned after a four-year hiatus came to power.
And one of the byproducts of that fear six years ago was that voters who didn’t like Trump’s behavior mobilized, and some talented candidates felt compelled to run.
In the three election cycles since 2018, Texas Democrats have failed to match the energy and passion that emerged from the first two years of Trump’s first presidency. We’ll see if this future president can please his opposition in the first two years of his second presidency.
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