Why is hybrid warfare on the rise?
During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union engaged in hybrid warfare as the two nuclear powers wanted to avoid outright confrontation.
Hybrid warfare provided enough plausible deniability to prevent direct armed retaliation.
After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia found its military power declining, which only encouraged the further use of hybrid warfare to avoid direct military confrontation with the West.
“What is common to both Russian and Chinese thinking is the core idea of avoiding Western military strengths and attacking its weaknesses – the essence of indirect strategy,” wrote Dr. Kumar Ramakrishna, professor of national security studies at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. , in a paper.
Another advantage of hybrid warfare is the ability for countries and groups to wage war cheaply.
As the costs of conventional conflict in a nuclear age continue to rise, so do the risks of escalation, experts say. As such, countries are even more likely to engage in hybrid warfare.
“It is far more feasible to sponsor and foment disinformation in collaboration with non-state actors than to roll tanks into another country’s territory or fly fighter jets into the airspace,” wrote Bilal, the researcher.
“The costs and risks are considerably less, but the damage is real.”
One result of Russia’s interference in the 2016 US elections was the mainstreaming of right-wing populism in the US, resulting in an erosion of trust in state institutions.
“As right-wing populism contributes to and intersects with declining trust in mainstream media, disinformation can be used to create security challenges within target states,” Bilal added.
“Russia strategically uses disinformation to achieve political and strategic goals.”
Then there is generative artificial intelligence (AI). It has already become increasingly common and easier for nefarious entities to use the technology to spoof credible news platforms and government websites, further eroding trust.
Due to the distributed nature of hybrid warfare, countries may also be unaware that they are being attacked, leaving them unable to develop a response.
“It is often difficult to fully diagnose an active or recent hybrid threat,” says Bilal.
“The target’s decision-making process can be damaged because an unattributable force carried out the hostile action, or because there is plausible deniability on the part of the aggressor.
“Polarization could deepen at state and societal levels as a result of disinformation.”
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