PHOENIX — Vice President Kamala Harris thinks she can win the election thanks to a message about abortion rights. Former President Trump thinks he can win on immigration.
In Arizona they will find out who was right.
None of the seven swing states portray the key issues of the two campaigns as strongly. Arizona is the only border state between the battleground states and the only one where abortion access is on the ballot as a possible amendment to the state constitution.
Abortion rights activist Deanna Marquez of Gilbert, Ariz., fills out a “Yes on Proposition 139” card to send to a voter. The measure would enshrine the right to abortion in the Arizona Constitution.
(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)
Trump and Harris emphasized these messages as they made a final sweep through the West last week.
Trump found an eager audience for his tough border speech Thursday at an event with conservative broadcaster Tucker Carlson in Glendale, where he told a crowd of roaring supporters that he thought immigration was “the biggest problem.”
“They were destroying this country at the border, I mean millions and millions of people. I’m sure we’ll have some with us tonight,” Trump said as the crowd roared with laughter. “You know, murderers and drug dealers, prisoners.”
Meanwhile, Harris hammered the issue of abortion at an event just six miles away in Phoenix. For decades, abortion motivated conservative Republicans to go to the polls, but after the overturn of Roe vs. Wade and the constitutional right to abortion is now widely seen as helping Democrats achieve victories in the 2022 midterm elections.
In Arizona, the issue is on the agenda in the form of Proposition 139, which would enshrine the right to due process in the Arizona Constitution.
Vice President Kamala Harris greets supporters during a rally at the Talking Stick Resort Amphitheater in Phoenix.
(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)
Harris highlighted the measure, telling Arizona voters at the Talking Stick Resort Amphitheater that “Arizona, to protect your rights to make your own health care decisions, would recommend that you vote yes on Proposition 139. And make sure you vote up and down in the vote really protect that right.”
Arizona’s Republican-led legislature passed a 15-week abortion ban, which has been in effect since Roe was overturned. The law received unusual attention in the past year after the Supreme Court ruled that it conflicted with a near-complete abortion ban already on the books. since 1864.
The legislature ultimately repealed the 1864 lawleaving the 15 weeks ban in place. But not before attracting the attention of the national media, gathering passionate activists on both sides of the issue and endangers the situation political futures from various state judges and legislatures.
Cathi Herrod, president of the Center for Arizona Policy, is leading the campaign against Proposition 139, saying it goes “too far.”
“That’s the battle of our time, whether we’re going to protect precious unborn babies and their mothers, or whether we’re going to become the abortion capital of this country,” Herrod said at a know your vote event. at Dream City Church in September.
According to several figures, the momentum is on the side of abortion rights. One in five registered voters in Arizona signed the petition to place Proposition 139 on the ballot, said Kelly Hall, executive director of the Fairness Project, an abortion rights group. A New York Times/Siena College poll in late September showed that 58% of likely voters in Arizona supported the measure, making it more popular in the state than either presidential candidate.
Hall said she has heard from some grassroots organizers in Arizona who are opening their conversations with voters by talking about the abortion measure before focusing on other topics.
A capacity crowd cheers during the Harris rally at the Talking Stick Resort Amphitheater.
(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)
“It’s easier to get people to talk to them about abortion than to say, ‘Who are you voting for, for president?’” she said.
Registration of voters in Arizona is almost neatly split into thirds – 36% Republican, 29% Democrat and 34% other – putting almost all of the myriad races on this year’s ballot to the test.
There’s the closely watched Senate race, which pits Kari Lake, a Trump-affiliated Republican and former news broadcaster who lost the 2022 race for governor, against Ruben Gallego, a Democratic congressman and Marine Corps veteran .
There are three competitive congressional races, according to the Cook political report, which monitors swing districts nationwide.
There are legislative races that could tip the balance of the Legislature, where Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers.
Campaign workers collect signs for the Harris-Walz ticket and Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallegos at the Maryvale Field Office in Phoenix.
(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)
And of course there is the presidential race, which has been decided in Arizona with just over 10,000 votes in 2020.
The election is inevitable in Phoenix, as almost every street corner is dominated by a colorful collection of campaign signs of all political stripes. At a voting center in Scottsdale on Wednesday, incoming voters were greeted by activists from both parties flanking the parking lot entrance — a conservative in a red shirt on the right and two progressives in blue on the left.
Harris’ campaign targeted several niche demographic groups in Arizona, such as Mormons And Native Americans – whose small margins could topple the state. She has also courted prominent Arizona Republicans such as former Sen. Jeff Flake, who said at a news conference Wednesday that he supported Harris “not despite him being a conservative Republican, but because of (it).”
A passerby threw a comment in Flake’s direction: “RINO!” – short for “Republican in Name Only.”
In Arizona, Trump has relied on Turning Point USA, the organization founded by conservative podcaster and provocateur Charlie Kirk, which focuses on challenging low-propensity voters such as college students.
His organization recently held its 25th voter event on the college campus, Kirk said Thursday at the Trump rally. He urged attendees to put on a MAGA hat and go to a Denny’s. “People will give compliments,” he said, advising them to respond with a question: “Did you vote?”
“I want you to recreate the anger you felt” after the 2020 election, Kirk told the crowd. “I want you to recreate that pit in the stomach for those of you who have lived here all your lives and you thought this state would never, ever, send its votes to a Democrat for president.”
The Republican Party has pushed early voting across the country and pushed back against Trump’s message in 2020 when he questioned the security of mail-in ballots. Democrats led in early and mail-in voting that year. This year, Arizona Republicans are leading early voting the Arizona Republic.
A resident hangs a “Republicans for Harris” poster outside an early voting location at the Indian Bend Wash Visitor Center in Scottsdale, Ariz.
(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)
These elections once again put Arizona’s controversial election system in the spotlight. Maricopa County election officials weathered incendiary attacks, a barrage of lawsuits and continued criticism from the right in 2020 — despite efforts by election officials from both parties to quell distrust and make the election process more transparent.
A Difference in voter rolls in Arizonadiscovered just weeks ago threatened to sow further distrust in this year’s elections. Election officials discovered that about 98,000 people were incorrectly flagged in their system as showing proof of citizenship — a requirement to vote in Arizona (every other state requires a pledge of citizenship under penalty of perjury).
Minister of Foreign Affairs Adriaan Fontes called the chance of non-residents being on the electoral roll is ‘vanishingly rare’. The state Supreme Court ruled that voters could cast their full vote.
Election officials in Arizona have been elevated to heroes or villains, depending on who you ask. The stakes of Arizona’s election are becoming clear at the Maricopa County Ballot Tabulating Center, where vote counting is expected to take days. Two layers of security fencing surround the building, as well as metal detectors and even snipers on the roof.
Days before Nov. 5, some Republican voters are already wary of the results.
Trump supporters carry trash bags as they wait for the rally at the Desert Diamond Arena.
(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)
Ron, a Phoenix voter who declined to give his last name, said his polling place didn’t have enough printer paper in 2020, which was inconvenient for voters and caused some to leave early. The 60-year-old said he voted early this year because he “didn’t want to get caught up in the computer shenanigans that could potentially happen on that day.”
“No matter who wins or loses, the other side will always participate in the election,” he said.
Noah Bierman, a Times staff writer in Washington, contributed to this report.
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