Prime Minister Lawrence Wong addressed speculation about Singapore’s next general election date at a recent press conference, confirming that the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) has not yet been convened and that no decision has yet been made on the timing of next year’s elections.
Although Wong stated that the developments would be announced transparently, some are questioning how much advance notice the government will provide.
Historically, the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) has made limited announcements before elections. For example, in five of the past thirteen elections in Singapore, the formation of the EBRC was only announced after the boundary report was released, often catching opposition parties off guard, especially when single-member constituencies were merged with representative constituencies from neighboring groups.
In the last four elections, the time between the publication of the EBRC report and the dissolution of Parliament has varied widely, from 32 to 102 days, with an extreme case in 2001 when Parliament was dissolved just a day after the report’s publication disbanded.
This unpredictability makes it a challenge for opposition parties to prepare adequately. Given Wong’s tight timetable for holding the election, observers are wondering why he cannot commit to a date now, with less than a year to go.
Constitutional boundaries and the electoral process
Pursuant to Article 65 of the Constitution of SingaporeParliament must be dissolved within five years of its first session. The current parliament, which first met on August 24, 2020, must therefore be dissolved no later than August 23, 2025.
Section 66 requires a general election to be held within three months of the dissolution of Parliament, with the latest possible election date set as November 2025.
Historically, however, elections in Singapore have been held relatively soon after the dissolution of Parliament, typically within nine days, and rarely approach the maximum time frame of three months. on December 16, 1996.
This trend suggests that an election date close to August 2025 is more likely than one in November.
Estimating the timeline based on past practices
To estimate the likely dates for the upcoming elections, it is useful to take into account the established election planning patterns in Singapore.
After Parliament is dissolved, nomination day usually follows within seven to eight days, which marks the start of the official campaign period. The campaign period itself lasts nine to ten days and ends with election day.
Using this historical timeline, a likely election date would fall in early September if Parliament is dissolved before August 20, 2025, with Saturday, September 6, 2025 being the most likely choice.
Holding the election on this date would be in line with Singapore’s practice of voting on Saturdays and would allow the PAP to benefit from a shorter preparation period for opposition parties.
The role of SG60 and the National Day Rally
The timing of the next general election is also likely to be influenced by the 60th anniversary of Singapore’s independence (SG60) in 2025.
Celebrations around the National Day on August 9 would provide the PAP with a high-profile platform to showcase the government’s achievements, especially through the National Day Rally.
Traditionally held on the Sunday after National Day, this meeting would provide Prime Minister Wong with an excellent opportunity to address the nation one last time before the election, highlighting the government’s achievements and future plans in light of this historic anniversary .
While Wong could technically call an election before the National Day Rally, it is more likely that after the budget is passed in March, he will want to maximize the impact of SG60 by addressing Singaporeans at the Rally, even if this puts him close to limit of the current rally. The parliamentary term.
This scheme reflects the approach of the 2015 general election, where the PAP used national celebrations and positive budget announcements to boost public support. This time, however, there will be no factor such as the death of one of the founders, as with Lee Kuan Yew, that will attract the mass sympathy and support of the voters.
Budget 2025: potential for an “electoral budget”
Prime Minister Wong has shared preliminary insights on the 2025 Budget, indicating that it will focus on economic stability, job security and support for the ‘trapped generation’.
Although Wong has downplayed suggestions of an “election budget”, its timing – especially if presented close to the election – could significantly influence voter sentiment.
The government’s emphasis on addressing pressing issues and emphasizing the importance of SG60 could help create an enabling environment for the PAP. The possibility of SG60 cash vouchers and other support measures could help alleviate cost-of-living concerns for voters, further positioning the PAP advantageously.
Implications of Wong’s delayed announcement
Wong’s noncommittal approach to the election date may limit flexibility due to the tight timetable, but could still pose challenges for opposition parties seeking to prepare effectively.
Opposition candidates, many of whom do not have official appointments, may need to take longer leave to campaign in their neighborhoods, making advance notice crucial.
In recent years, the ruling party has been particularly opaque in this process, prompting opposition parties to repeatedly raise questions in Parliament about the status of the EBRC.
Labor Party MP Pritam Singh asked at 8 July 2019 if the EBRC had been convened, to which Minister Chan Chun Sing replied no. Yet the EBRC was short shaped then on August 1, 2019 without announcement, and only then Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made public it on September 4.
Although Wong has rejected the idea of an “election budget”, his focus on job security, cost of living and economic growth is likely to resonate with a broad voter base. By presenting these as national priorities, Wong strengthens his leadership and the PAP’s position, putting them in a favorable light as the elections approach.
Although Minister Chan Chun Sing stated during a parliamentary motion to review the border redrawing process that the government would aim to “leave sufficient time between the publication of the EBRC report and the dissolution of Parliament, so that all political parties and candidates make the necessary preparations,” previous data shows otherwise.
In the case of GE2020, the gap between the publication of the report and the actual elections can be attributed to a series of controversies, such as public discontent about the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) and events such as the Covid-19 pandemicwhich prevented the government from calling early elections earlier this year.
A similar situation is now faced by the current government, with recent scandals such as the dismissal from the former Speaker of Parliament over an extramarital affair with a PAP MP, public outrage over the rental of black and white houses by PAP ministers, and allegations of corruption against former Transport Minister S. Iswaran.
Closing remarks
Based on constitutional requirements, historical election patterns and the likely alignment with the celebration of SG60, all signs point to an election day on September 6, 2025, with Parliament being dissolved around August 20.
This timeline, reinforced by the 60th anniversary of Singapore’s independence and the PAP’s consistent approach to election timing, allows these likely dates to be deduced through constitutional and historical analysis.
So the question remains: to what extent can voters trust a prime minister who abstains from making an appointment, even though it is clear to most when the election is likely to take place? And what else would he keep from us?
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