Ratings changes: House almost as close as presidential race

ANALYSIS — While Republicans have a clear advantage in the campaign for control of the Senate, the fight for the House looks as close as the tight presidential race two weeks before Election Day.

Of the eight recent House ratings changes from Inside Elections, six were among Democrats, and the fight for the majority in each district is as close as it has been all cycle.

There are currently 65 House races rated competitive, including 212 districts where Republicans have an advantage (rated as Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Republican), 208 where Democrats have an advantage, and 15 toss-up races “. To win the four seats needed for a majority, Democrats need to win 10 of 15 toss-up races, while Republicans need to win six of 15 to retain control.

Given the recent lack of ticket splitting, it’s not surprising that there are tight races for both the White House and the U.S. House of Representatives this cycle.

Overall, Inside Elections’ House seat projection has both Democrats gaining nine seats and Republicans gaining six seats. That range could narrow just before Election Day if there are fewer toss-up races.

Incumbents

GOP Rep. John Duarte joined a small group of incumbents who were considered underdogs as Northern California’s 13th District flipped from the Toss-up Party to the Tilt Democratic Party. New York GOP Rep. Brandon Williams was already in this category, and now his 22nd district has been rated Lean Democratic by Tilt Democratic.

Other officials have seen a shift to more sensitive categories. California Republican Michelle Steel (45th District) and New York Republican Marc Molinaro (19th District) changed their races from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. Texas Democrat Vicente Gonzalez switched from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat in the 34th District against former GOP Rep. Mayra Flores.

The re-election chances of the two incumbents improved. Ohio Democrat Emilia Sykes changed her 13th District race from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic, and Nevada Democrat Steven Horsford had his battleground race changed from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic, while Republicans focus their efforts where else.

Open

Republicans’ prospects have improved in one open seat (California’s 47th District), which is now being rated as a tilt by Tilt Democratic in the race between Republican Scott Baugh and Democrat Dave Min to replace Democratic Rep. KatiePorter. Vice President Kamala Harris looks set to finish ahead of former President Donald Trump in the Orange County race, but Baugh is close.

Senate trend line

In the Senate, Republicans and Democrats continue to have divergent views on the state of the Nebraska Senate race. Republicans believe Sen. Deb Fischer now has the lead after months of a competitive race. However, Democrats believe that independent candidate Dan Osborn still has the advantage. It doesn’t feel like the split between the two perspectives is quite right, but more like one side completely misread the situation.

As a Republican in a Republican state, Fischer should still have the upper hand despite herself. But this race isn’t over yet and the rating has changed from Likely Republican to Lean Republican in favor of the Democrats.

Even though Nebraska has become a Republican headache, the GOP still has a better chance of taking control of the Senate. The Senate’s scope for internal elections is for Republicans to gain two to four seats. The GOP needs a net gain of two seats for a majority, but could control the Senate by gaining one seat and winning the White House because then-Vice President J.D. Vance could break the tie vote.

House list

He moved toward the Republicans: :

Californian 47. (open; Katie Porter, Germany) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up

Texas 34th (Vicente Gonzalez, D) from Probable Democratic to Democratic Lean

He moved toward the Democrats: :

California 13. (John Duarte, right) Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

California 45. (Michelle Steel, R) Tilt Republican to Toss-up

Number four in Nevada (Steven Horsford, DE) went from probable Democrat to solid Democrat

New York’s 19th (Marc Molinaro, right) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up

22nd in New York (Brandon Williams, right) from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic

13th in Ohio (Emilia Sykes, DE) from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic

Senate list