By DÁNICA COTO, Associated Press
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — The two parties that have dominated Puerto Rican politics for decades are losing their grip as they face their fiercest competition yet from a younger generation fed up with the island’s corruption. chronic power outages and mismanagement of public resources.
For the first time in the race for the island’s governor, a third-party candidate has a powerful second lead in the polls ahead of Tuesday’s election in the U.S. territory — and some experts say there’s a possibility he could win.
“These elections are already historic,” says political analyst and university professor Jorge Schmidt Nieto. “It already marks a before and an after.”
A supporter waves the Puerto Rican Independence Party flag while holding a campaign poster promoting Citizen’ Victory Movement mayoral candidate Manuel Natal during a caravan in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Alejandro Granadillo)
Juan Dalmau is running for the Puerto Rico Independence Party and the Citizen Victory Movement, founded in 2019. An international poll from Gaither this month shows Dalmau closing in on Jenniffer González, a member of the New Progressive Party and Puerto Rico’s representative in Congress. She defeated Governor Pedro Pierluisi during their party’s primaries in June.
Gaither’s poll shows Dalmau with 29% of support, compared to González’s 31%, as he almost overtook her, as another poll in July showed him with only 24% compared to González’s 43%. In third place was Jesús Manuel Ortiz of the Popular Democratic Party, followed by Javier Jiménez of Project Dignity, a conservative party founded in 2019.
Under pressure
Puerto Rican politics revolves around the island’s status, and until 2016 the New Progressive Party, which supports the state, and the Popular Democratic Party, which supports the status quo, would split at least 90% of all votes in general elections, said Schmidt. .
But that year, the U.S. Congress created a federal oversight board to oversee Puerto Rico’s finances, after the government announced it was unable to more than A national debt of 70 billion dollars. In 2017, Puerto Rico filed for the largest U.S. municipal bankruptcy in history.
A campaign poster promoting New Progressive Party gubernatorial candidate and Puerto Rico Representative in Congress Jenniffer González, above a campaign poster of Commissioner candidate Luis Villafañe, defaced with the Spanish words for corrupt and rogue, in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Saturday November 1, 2014. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Alejandro Granadillo)
The debt was created by decades of corruption, mismanagement and excessive borrowing at the Electric Power Authority of Puerto Rico still struggling to restructure its debt of more than $9 billion, the largest of any government agency.
Puerto Ricans have largely rejected and resented the administration, which was created a year earlier Hurricane Maria struck the island as a powerful Category 4 storm, destroying the power grid.
In 2020, Pierluisi won but received only 33% of the votes. His opponent from the Popular Democratic Party received 32%. It was the first time that either party failed to gain 40% of the vote.
The power outages that have persisted since the election, coupled with the slow pace of post-hurricane reconstruction, have left voters frustrated and angry. Under Pierluisi, the government signed contracts with two companies, Luma Energy and Genera PR, which together oversee energy generation, transmission and distribution. The outages continue, with companies blaming a network that was already crumbling before the hurricane hit due to a lack of maintenance and investment.
“Disastrous things have happened during this four-year term, especially in the field of electrical energy,” Schmidt said. “It has affected everyone, regardless of social class.”
Voters, he said, see Tuesday’s election “as a moment of revenge.”
A billboard promoting the Puerto Rico Independence Party and Citizen Victory Movement gubernatorial candidate Juan Dalmau towers over a highway in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Alejandro Granadillo)
Dalmau said he would oust both companies in an “organized manner” within six months if he becomes governor. Ortiz said he would terminate Luma’s contract, while González has called for the creation of an “energy czar” who would review potential contract breaches by Luma while another operator is found.
However, no contract may be canceled without prior approval from the Federal Control Board and the Puerto Rico Energy Agency.
The candidates are also under pressure to create affordable housing, reduce utility bills and overall costs of living, reduce violent crimes, boost Puerto Rico’s economy, with the island having been left out of capital markets since 2015 closed, and to improve a crumbling healthcare system as thousands of doctors flock to the US mainland.
Dalmau, who suspended his campaign for two weeks in mid-October after his wife underwent emergency brain surgery, has also said he would eliminate tax breaks for wealthy continental U.S. citizens.
Apathy predominates
Despite their promises to change Puerto Rico, the candidates face continued voter apathy.
In 2008, 1.9 million of the 2.5 million registered voters participated in that year’s elections, compared to 1.3 million of the 2.3 million in 2020.
According to Puerto Rico’s State Election Commission, nearly 99,000 new voters have registered this year and more than 87,000 have reactivated their status.
“A much higher number was expected,” Schmidt said.
He noted that those middle-aged and older favor González and her pro-state party, while those under 45 “overwhelmingly” favor Dalmau, meaning that if a majority of young voters participate on Tuesday and fewer elderly Do that, he might have a chance to win.
The Bad Bunny Factor
The months leading up to the November 5 elections were contentious.
Reggaetón superstar Bad Bunny paid for dozens of billboard ads criticizing Puerto Rico’s two main parties. In response, the governor’s New Progressive Party funded a billboard implying an obscenity regarding Bad Bunny.
On Friday, the singer published a page-long letter in a local newspaper mocking González’s pro-state party.
Although the artist has not endorsed any local officials, Dalmau was the one person he recently started following on Instagram.
Meanwhile, a so-called “cemetery of corruption” was set up in the capital San Juan on Thursday with large black-and-white photos of nearly a dozen politicians from the island’s two main parties who have been charged or convicted by federal authorities. in recent years. It was created by Eva Prados of the Citizen Victory Movement, who is running for the House of Puerto Rico. On Friday, police said the photos had been destroyed or stolen.
A view of the La Perla neighborhood in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Saturday, November 2, 2024. (AP Photo by Alejandro Granadillo)
As the race heats up, the number of formal complaints about alleged election crimes has also increased. This includes people who say they have received confirmations for early voting, even though they have not made such a request.
A persistent question
Voters will also be asked for the seventh time Tuesday what Puerto Rico’s political status should be.
The non-binding referendum will feature three choices: statehood, independence, and independence with free association, negotiating issues such as foreign affairs, U.S. citizenship, and the use of the U.S. dollar.
Regardless of the outcome, a change of status requires the approval of the U.S. Congress.
“For many people, voting in a non-binding referendum is a demoralizing exercise,” said Christina Ponsa-Kraus, a professor at Columbia Law School. “The reason Puerto Ricans have voted seven times is because every time they vote, Congress does nothing.”
The urge for a change in status does not depend on if Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory on the American continent.
“There is more at stake than just who becomes president, but who controls Congress,” Ponsa-Kraus said as she called on Congress to provide Puerto Rico with “non-colonial options.”
She added that it is difficult to say whether the governorship led by Dalmau, who has long represented Puerto Rico’s Independence Party, will influence the plebiscite.
“My feeling is that … people can differentiate between a candidate and a status option,” she said. “I believe Puerto Ricans historically have not supported independence because they don’t want to lose their citizenship, and they don’t want to lose the ability to travel freely back and forth between the mainland United States and the island.”
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