BILOXI, Miss. (WLOX) – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is monitoring what is now potential Tropical Cyclone 18 in the Caribbean this week. The Hurricane Hunters discovered that this system is becoming more organized and that it will likely become Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday.
According to the NHC forecast, PTC 18 will become a hurricane before approaching Cuba by mid-week. The storm is expected to approach the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week, possibly as a tropical storm. South Mississippi is clipped by the forecast cone.
Forecast cone for potential Tropical Cyclone 18(WLOX) 
Hurricane Hunters are underway to investigate Invest 97-L(WLOX) 
After arriving in the gulf, the future of the system becomes unclear.(WLOX)
Although wind shear and dry air generally keep tropical activity to a minimum during the month of November, it is possible that conditions over the southern half of the Gulf could allow for the formation of a would-be storm. Wind shear is expected to be relatively light over the southern Gulf of Mexico and sea surface temperatures are still very warm.
Until this system becomes better organized, models will struggle with the specific details such as the track and intensity of this system.
Early trends suggest wind shear and dry air could increase across the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle to late next week. So as a system strengthens, it may encounter a less favorable environment as it travels further north.
In the meantime, it’s a good idea to check the weather forecast regularly as it’s a good reminder that hurricane season continues through November.
There is also a low pressure system moving through the Greater Antilles with a low chance of development. While some development of this low is possible, it will likely be absorbed into the broad low in the western Caribbean.
The next name on the list is Rafael.
GFS shows a broad low that becomes much more developed early Monday morning.(WLOX) 
The EURO will show a global low in the western Caribbean early next week.(WLOX)
The hurricane season officially ends at the end of November.
Since 1850, only three hurricanes have made landfall in the US in the month of November.
November Hurricane has been making landfall since 1850(WLOX)
Do you see a spelling or grammar error in this story? Report it to our team HERE.
Copyright 2024 WLOX. All rights reserved.
Leave a Reply