The day of the 2024 US presidential election is upon us, and the polls between the Democratic vice president Kamala Harris and the Republican former president Donald Trump are as close as can be. It is a neck-and-neck race, with hardly anyone knowing for sure what the outcome will be presidential elections will be, or when we will know.
Just like the rest of the world looks at America With bated breath and clenched butts, fear about the outcome of the 2024 US election is at an all-time high because we don’t know much yet.
Given the enormous number of factors that could determine the outcome, Chas Licciardello from ABC Planet America said that even trying to make predictions is “just stupid.”
“It’s like I’m asking you, ‘Who will win the prize?’ AFL grand final?’ while there are eight teams that could all be in the grand final,” he told PEDESTRIAN.TV.
Harris and Trump are the two candidates for president. (Source: Getty)
So, instead of trying to answer who will win the 2024 US election, let’s try to answer something simpler: when will we know the outcome of the US election?
Without further ado, here’s our official cheat sheet for the 2024 US elections so you can look super smart in front of all your friends as the results all come in!
When will voting end for the 2024 US elections?
First of all, the votes cannot be counted until the stalls close.
Voting closes in each state on Tuesday, November 5 at 6 p.m. However, since we live in Australia, the time zones will be different.
Early voting in North Carolina. (Photo by Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images)
For that reason, Aussies can expect the results of the 2024 US election to trickle in around lunchtime AEDT on Wednesday, November 6.
As for guessing when we will learn the result? Turns out the answer is as uncertain as everything else in this dumpster fire of a presidential race…
When will we know the 2024 election results in the US?
The winner will be determined by the presidential candidate who wins at least 270 seats in the US Electoral College.
Each state must count its votes to determine which way the Electoral College seats go. But like the Australian election, the votes that really matter are the votes in states/seats that fluctuate.
Harris delivered her “closing arguments” before the election. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
Often the best early indicator we can get of an election outcome is which way the swing states vote, because if they all go one way, experts can more clearly determine who the winner is.
In these elections there are no fewer than 100,000 seven swing states that can all determine the final result. They are:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Swing states in the 2024 US presidential election. (Source: Canva)
It probably means we’ll be waiting longer than usual for the 2024 results. And let’s not forget that in the 2020 election – where Joe Biden topped Donald Trump – it took four days for a winner to be declared. It could take a long time, folks.
But take a chance when the result comes in – or WHO will win – is not as simple as estimating the most likely outcome of each state’s vote.
“While in the past there were one or two states that were 50/50… but in this case there are seven states that could determine the outcome,” Licciardello explained.
A giant garbage mover, depicted sitting in a dumpster. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
This creates a headache for those predicting the outcome, because the factors that could determine how one state leans could be negated by the other six battleground states.
“Any one of them could be the tipping point, and each of them has different reasons that contradict each other,” Licciardello said.
“So if you go one way for one state, you go the other way for the other state, and we just don’t know which of the seven states is going to be the critical state.
“We just don’t know. And that’s why it’s just stupid to make predictions.”
However, there are some early indicators to watch for that will point to a Harris or Trump win. Read on.
Voting stickers in Wisconsin. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Earliest sign Kamala Harris will win
If Vice President Kamala Harris ultimately wins by a landslide, one of the first signs will be the outcome in North Carolina.
“They’re traditionally a very fast-counting state, and North Carolina is one of the swing states in play, but it’s a swing state that favors Trump quite a bit,” Licciardello said.
“So if Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, it’s pretty much over and she’s going to win this election.”
North Carolina. (Source: Canva)
If Harris wins North Carolina, it will be clear around 2pm AEDT.
This means you could potentially find out the outcome before you even finish your lunch break, and America will have elected its first female president and the second person of color ever to the Oval Office.
Alternatively…
First sign that Donald Trump will win
If Donald Trump is going to win, the quickest way we can tell is by looking at the state of New Hampshire.
While New Hampshire is not one of the seven battleground states in this election, it is a state that could potentially vote for Trump if he wins by a landslide, and is therefore worth paying attention to.
New Hampshire. (Source: Canva)
“I would say around the same time, around two o’clock, three o’clock (AEDT), you’ll know who wins New Hampshire,” Licciardello explained.
“And if Trump wins New Hampshire, that’s it. It’s over, it’s Trump.”
All this is only possible if the results are a surprising red/blue wave towards one candidate.
And given how close the polls are, that’s not likely.
When are we likely to find out who won the 2024 US elections?
Which brings us to the much more realistic third option: that this election is extremely close and we won’t be able to tell for days.
In this case, the outcome of the election will come down to three swing states specifically: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
And to make matters worse, Licciardello says, “They just happen to be the three slowest counting states.”
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (Source: Canva)
These states all take longer to count because, unlike places like Florida where early and mail-in votes are verified before Election Day, these three wait until after voting closes to process early ballots .
In the case of Michigan, it could take two days before we know the winner. Meanwhile, it could be the weekend before we know anything about the results in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“If it becomes a bit of a ball-scratcher and we’re looking at days and days – which we almost certainly will be if it’s going to be very tight – then nothing that happens on Election Day is going to give us any real certainty. no idea,” Licciardello said.
Get ready for your pageant celebrations that last until Saturday and Sunday, folks!
Main image: Getty
The author of this article works for Chas Licciardello on the Planet Extra Podcast (PEP).
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