Week 11 of the college football schedule gives us another taste of November action, with major and potential playoff teams with automatic bids looking to make a statement. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the top matches based on an expert analytical football model.
We have a clearer picture of where things stand nationally following the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings, and we could see some movement in that poll and the updated seeding order after what happened this weekend.
What do the analytical models suggest for Week 11 action?
Looking ahead to this week’s games, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on an expected scoring margin per game.
Purdue, Ohio
What the model says: Ohio State has a better than 99 percent chance of beating the reeling Boilermakers, who come in with college football’s worst scoring margin per game and have yet to win a Big Ten game.
Prediction: Ohio State with 41
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Miami at Georgia Tech
What the model says: Miami has a 77 percent chance of beating the Ramblin’ Wreck outright, but Tech can play solid pass defense when it feels like it, and the Hurricanes defense hasn’t delivered as quality a product as the Cam Ward-led offense . .
Prediction: Miami at 11am
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Florida near Texas
What the model says: As expected, Texas is the heavy favorite with a 91 percent chance of beating the Gators, who could be their third quarterback after the loss of Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway, and the Longhorns also play stout defense.
Prediction: Texel with 20
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Georgia at Ole Miss
What the model says: A critical test for both SEC hopefuls, and notably it’s the Rebels who are the current favorites, with a 54 percent chance to beat the Bulldogs, who enter this week as the projected SEC champions and No. 2 seed in the play-offs.
Prediction: Ole Miss by 1
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Michigan in Indiana
What the model says: Expect the Hoosiers to keep their historic streak alive as the index favors IU at a strong 87 percent probability against Michigan, which can field a stout defense up front but has failed to match that effort with any real violation.
Prediction: Indiana with 17
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The state of Iowa in Kansas
What the model says: After its first loss of the season, Iowa State remains the favorite against the Jayhawks with a slim 55 percent chance of an outright win, but in a very close game.
Prediction: Iowa State with 2
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Army in North Texas
What the model says: We’ll see if Bryson Daily returns at quarterback for Army, which has a 62 percent chance of winning outright but faces a North Texas offense that can throw the ball and put up some serious points.
Prediction: Army with 5
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Clemson at Virginia Tech
What the model says: After its second loss of the season, Clemson remains the favorite in this ACC road test with a 63 percent chance of beating a Hokies team dealing with some injuries.
Prediction: Clemson with 5
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Colorado at Texas Tech
What the model says: While tied for second place in the Big 12 standings, the Buffs are suddenly within striking distance in Coach Prime’s second year, and with a 64 percent chance of knocking out the Red Raiders, one of the worst pass defenses in college football.
Prediction: Colorado with 5
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South Carolina at Vanderbilt
What the model says: Two SEC teams on the rise, but the Gamecocks and their stout defensive line get a slight edge, with a 59 percent chance against the Commodores on the road.
Prediction: South Carolina with 3
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Maryland in Oregon
What the model says: Oregon is predictably a heavy favorite, with a 93 percent chance of beating the Terrapins at home behind one of college football’s most potent offenses and staying atop the Big Ten standings.
Prediction: Oregon by 24
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The state of Mississippi in Tennessee
What the model says: A virtual lock for the Volunteers, who have a 94 percent chance of an outright win against an MSU team that has yet to win a game in SEC play.
Prediction: Tennessee with 24
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Florida State at Notre Dame
What the model says: The same goes for the Fighting Irish in a game against the Seminoles that we thought in the preseason would have playoff implications, but now there’s a 96 percent lock for Notre Dame against an FSU opponent that only has one victory in the season.
Prediction: Notre Dame on 29
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Alabama at LSU
What the model says: Essentially an elimination game for the College Football Playoff, the Crimson Tide are given a solid 70 percent chance of beating the Tigers on the road behind quarterback Jalen Milroe against LSU’s star gunner Garrett Nussmeier.
Prediction: Alabama with 8
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Washington at Penn State
What the model says: Penn State gets an 87 percent chance to beat the Huskies and bounce back from the loss at Ohio State, but it needs to get some more offensive production as the team looks ahead to a potential playoff berth at No. 6 coming into this week.
Prediction: Penn State with 17
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Nevada in the state of Boise
What the model says: Ashton Jeanty should find some space against a Nevada-run defense that is among the worst in college football this season, and the Broncos have a 94 percent chance of victory.
Prediction: Boise State with 25
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Virginia in Pittsburgh
What the model says: Pitt is coming off a heartbreaking first loss of the season but returns home against a beatable Virginia team against which it has a 76 percent chance of winning outright.
Prediction: Pittsburg at 11am
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BYU-Utah
What the model says: Undefeated and alone atop the Big 12 standings, the Cougars enter perfection against a rival in the Holy War game, but have a 60 percent chance of winning outright and staying perfect when it starts to matter.
Prediction: BYU with 4
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The state of Utah and the state of Washington
What the model says: Wazzu is a lock to take down the Aggies at home with a 94 percent chance of winning outright against a Utah State defense that allows more than 40 points per game.
Prediction: Washington state with 24
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Place your bets… Week 11 college football picks against the spread
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