College football is unpredictable and delightful, and that’s why we live for what happens on Saturday. And Week 11 was definitely a success, with two upsets in the top five that are sure to shake up the College Football Playoff picture.
Every Sunday I publish my key takeaways from the college football weekend. I highlight the most interesting storylines, follow the College Football Playoff contenders, and specifically call out individual and team achievements that deserve the spotlight.
These are my most important tips from week 11:
1. Playoff for Prime Time?
Colorado is now 7-2, fresh off a statement win over Texas Tech. The Buffs now have a clear path to the Big 12 championship game, meaning they have a very real chance of making the CFP – all things considered Deion Sanders‘second season. That’s a completely accurate sentence, which is incredible for a program that went 4-8 just a year ago. Many of us (myself included) wrote off Colorado after the loss to Nebraska in Week 2. But the Buffs responded. They also responded to the setbacks time and time again in the game, from the Hail Mary needed to beat Baylor and even in Saturday’s game (including overcoming an early 13-point deficit). It’s time to give Coach Prime and these players their due. Colorado is a better team than it was a season ago. And it’s not just because of the NFL-ready quarterback and Heisman hopeful; they do a lot, but they don’t do it alone.
2. Miami’s first loss was a long time coming.
Rating Miami’s ACC Champion. opportunities after loss
The Big Ten College Countdown crew discusses Georgia Tech, which handed Miami its first loss of the season, including the Hurricanes’ defensive woes, and whether the team can still make it to the ACC Championship.
The Hurricanes flirted with losing for most of the season. There are only so many dramatic comebacks and magic Cam Ward moments that exist in this universe. And maybe Miami has used up its allotment with its crazy finishes against Virginia Tech and Cal, and its ability to overcome deficits to both those teams and Duke and Louisville. At some point, the ‘Canes’ porous defense would become a problem. That was Saturday against Georgia Tech. Miami is now allowing 31.7 points and 372.5 yards per game in ACC play, and against the Yellow Jackets the ‘Canes defense allowed 271 rushing yards (at a 5.6 yards per carry clip) while Georgia Tech both the game as the clock controlled. Miami has an incredible offense capable of making up for poor defense, and so far that hasn’t been a problem because the Hurricanes have played such a weak schedule. I’m not sure what this means for postseason football, but I doubt it portends great things.
3. Georgia’s loss wasn’t very surprising either.
Georgia and Miami takeaways lose in Week 11
The Big Ten College Countdown crew reacts to some of the biggest games in college football in Week 11, including Ole Miss topping Georgia and Georgia Tech handing Miami its first loss of the season.
Quarterback Carson Beck has been a problem for most of the season. He is turnover-prone, having thrown 11 interceptions in the five games he played prior to Saturday. It became clear fairly early in Georgia’s loss to Ole Miss that the ‘Dawgs’ coaching staff did not trust Beck to throw the ball far. There were a lot of short passes, much more horizontal movement than vertical. Georgia’s 10-point output is tied for the fewest points in a game in the Kirby Smart era. It was also the first time in seven years that the ‘Dawgs offense had fewer than 250 receiving yards in a game. Obviously, the defense was also affected by Ole Miss’ explosive offense. But the offense was also a big problem, and predictably so. I don’t know how or why Beck has regressed so much this season, but it will limit this team’s ceiling.
4. BYU is a good football team. It might not be a great one.
I was a BYU defender most of the week. I couldn’t believe how much respect the CFP selection committee had for the 8-0 Cougars, who not only hadn’t lost, but had two top-20 wins on their resume. And yet BYU was ranked No. 9 in the initial CFP rankings, behind teams like Texas and Penn State, neither of which had better wins than the Cougs. But then BYU laid an egg late Saturday night in a huge rivalry game. Just before halftime, the Cougs were down by 11 points and completely mismanaged the clock. In short, everything BYU did was what it shouldn’t have done against an otherwise mediocre team (4-4 overall, 1-4 in Big 12 play) that has been a shell of itself ever since. Cam rises was injured. I understand that rivalries bring out the best in teams – everyone says you should throw away the records, etc. etc. – but BYU had to prove that it wasn’t an undefeated, undefeated team that was on the good side of some. turnover luck and a few mediocre performances from opponents who generally don’t deliver. The Cougars were unimpressive, which is going to be a big problem for this team if it doesn’t win the Big 12 and earn the league’s automatic bid.
5. Lane Kiffin finally got his signature win at Ole Miss.
Entering Saturday, Kiffin’s Rebels were 0-4 against opponents in the top five. All four of these losses were by at least 15 points. It had been a clear blemish for a coach who had otherwise enjoyed great success during his first four seasons at Oxford, ma’am. And now Kiffin has won a big game, beating No. 3 Georgia 28-10 – and Ole Miss left no question as to which team was the better on that field. Suddenly the rebels have a strong case for a large-scale CFP bid. They have one of the best wins in the country and two losses by a total of six points (with the overtime loss to LSU coming after Ole Miss literally never trailed in the game, which is still a wild statistic). Ole Miss would need some serious help to reach the SEC title game, but I’d say the Rebs are better positioned for the CFP by not playing in that game. A 10-2 record with a win over Georgia would almost certainly be enough to be there on December 8.
6. Alabama will make the Playoff.
Analysis of SEC, Big 12 teams in the first CFP rankings
After eight SEC and four Big 12 teams appeared in the first CFP rankings, the Big Ten College Countdown crew breaks down the standout programs, including Tennessee, LSU and Boise State.
I know I’ve fluctuated wildly with my analysis of Alabama this season. In their defense, the Crimson Tide have had their ups and downs! This team has been inconsistent! Jalen Milroe has had some brutal games — cough, Tennessee, cough — but he’s also been spectacular, as he won at LSU on Saturday night. Milroe paced the Tigers on the ground, rushing for 185 yards and four scores on just 12 carries. He was on edge from the start of the game and the fast start was crucial for Alabama in an environment as hostile as Death Valley at night. It was a very impressive performance in what was billed as a CFP elimination game, and now the Tide has a pretty smooth path the rest of the way. Alabama’s only remaining opponents are Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn. Clearly, this particular Alabama team is capable of a clunker. But I’d be shocked if the Crimson Tide doesn’t finish the season 10-2 and be in the mix to host a CFP first-round matchup.
7. The ACC race is still pretty easy.
Real! Even though Miami lost! So it’s clear that SMU has the clearest path, as it remains undefeated in ACC play. But Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech puts the rest of the league in a tiebreaker scenario. Pitt’s loss to Virginia actually makes it all very easy moving forward. If SMU wins and then Miami and Clemson win, SMU would be in the title game, and both Miami and Clemson would suffer one loss in ACC play. The competition would therefore go to common opponents. And the ‘Canes beat Louisville, and Louisville beat Clemson. Case closed. We would have an SMU-Miami ACC title game, with an automatic CFP bid on the line.
8. Ashton Jeanty reminded everyone that he belongs in the Heisman Trophy mix.
Jeanty has taken a bit of a back seat in the Heisman conversation – through no fault of his own. He has played well and his team continues to win. It’s just not the same spotlight it was earlier this year, and he’s no longer averaging a first down per rush. That’s fine! But a lot of the conversations lately have turned away Dillon Gabriel (who leads the nation’s undefeated No. 1 team) and Cam Ward (who may be a literal magician). Plus a Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter is great, and he has begun openly campaigning for the award. These three players seem close to earning a trip to New York City. And so should Jeanty, even if he’s a little out of sight, out of mind. Jeanty had 34 carries for 209 yards and three touchdowns in Boise State’s win over Nevada. Highlights galore! That’s important when it comes to an award like this.
9. College football chaos remains undefeated.
This is the best sport in the world, and that’s because of weekends like this. I love waking up on Saturdays because I’m never quite sure where the day will take me. Even though I predict upsets and analyze games for a living, it’s hard to know exactly what to expect, especially in a season like this. The only team still undefeated in the AP preseason poll is Oregon (which was ranked No. 3 in the poll). The last time we saw this pair of undefeated teams from the preseason poll was in 2014, the very first year of the four-team Playoff (and it was preseason No. 1 FSU that went undefeated through Week 11).
10. Yes, Dan Lanning. You’re 10-0, and so are we Are entertained.
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