MANIPUR’s never-ending crisis continues to plague the state, with the recent violence shattering the uneasy peace between the people of the Imphal Valley and a section of the mountain communities in the highlands. For a brief period, public attention shifted to Shillong, the capital of Meghalaya, where Prime Minister Conrad Sangma announced the withdrawal of his National People’s Party (NPP) support from the state government.
The NPP is the second largest group in the 60-member Assembly with seven MLAs. The Assembly is dominated by the BJP, which itself has a comfortable majority with 37 MLAs and a coalition of smaller parties, including the JD(U) with six and the Naga Peoples Front with five. In a sharp indictment of Prime Minister Biren Singh – the NDA remains in the NDA led by the BJP at the Center – Sangma, who also heads the NPP, stated that “there was no confidence in our party in the current leadership by Biren Singh. ”
Although he promised to work for peace, the party made it clear that it would not rejoin the government until Singh was deposed.
However, removing Singh is easier said than done. While this was a demand of the Kuki groups, who felt deeply aggrieved, the latest massacre of a Meitei family of six – three women and three children – led to angry attacks on the houses of MLAs and ministers in the Imphal Valley . The majority of the Meitei people live in the valley. One of the main driving forces behind the Meitei campaign is the COCOMI (Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity), an NGO representing the valley.
While the Center remains silent on the demand for Singh’s removal, interviews with people on both sides of the divide indicate that the main challenge for the BJP and the Center is to find a replacement strong enough to handle Manipur’s complex politics to be able to. This includes not only maintaining balance with allies, but also controlling civil society, dealing with insurgent groups, managing the media and keeping dissident MLAs in check. Until May 2023, when the ethnic eruption began, this cash-strapped state was seen as a place of promise and growth.
At least Singh was a survivor. Over the years, he has honed his skills and defeated rivals and rebels several times. In 2022, he led the BJP to a majority in the Assembly elections, crushing the Congress. A few weeks ago, a lot of fuss was made about a purported letter signed by 19 parties criticizing the CM, but the letter was dropped.
In June last year, barely two months after the start of the bloody conflict, Singh left for Raj Bhavan with a resignation letter in hand for the governor. A large crowd stopped the convoy, snatched the letter and tore it up in a theatrical, well-publicized display of support.
But Singh continues to face major internal challenges. On November 21, ten MLAs from the Kuki tribe, including seven from the BJP, attacked the state government, accusing it of favoring the majority Meiteis.
“The CM mismanaged the situation from the beginning,” said Yumnam Joykumar Singh, national vice-president of the NPP and former deputy prime minister during Biren Singh’s first term. “He says he is protecting the territorial integrity of Manipur, but where is this integrity? We cannot even travel to Jiribam or Moreh.”
Even as talk of imposing President’s rule without dissolving the state legislatures continues, the CM remains unfazed. There is also growing criticism that he is not playing a role in the security architecture, known as the Unified Command, which coordinates security operations in the state.
The Center’s point person for Manipur was Home Minister Amit Shah, and New Delhi’s response to the latest wave of violence was to reinstate the draconian Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in areas where it had been lifted, and flying 5,000 additional paramilitary soldiers. troopers to Manipur to strengthen the already significant security force presence. This muscular approach to security issues has drawn mixed reactions.
When the Home Minister announced an ambitious plan to fence the 1,643-km Indo-Myanmar border earlier this year, Nagaland and Mizoram strongly opposed it, while Tripura, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, all BJP-ruled states , welcomed it. The Singh government and the BJP MLAs have opposed the reintroduction of the AFSPA. Some say this concern stems from the fact that the sweeping law could be used against militias and vigilante groups, some of which are said to be close to the state leadership.
Editor Pradip Phanjoubam said in an interview that the main challenge was the proliferation of weapons, which was accompanied by acute lawlessness, with a growth of pro-government militias and armed rebels from almost all ethnic groups. “Anyone who has a gun in their hand becomes law,” he noted. He described the periods of fragile calm as an “absence of violence” in a “frozen conflict”. An undercurrent of grievances and unfulfilled ambitions flows through the state, threatening to erupt at the slightest provocation.
The identity of the protagonist or antagonist often depends on the viewer’s perception. In one incident, ten Kuki men who were killed when fired upon by a CRPF unit were variously described as insurgents or village guards, depending on who was speaking. The precise circumstances that led to the shooting remain unclear, as do many situations in Manipur.
A person with knowledge of the situation said the Kukis had automatic weapons and had been trained by rebel cadres who sometimes led them there and elsewhere.
Revenge is also a factor. During the latest outbreak of violence in Jiribam, the ill-fated family, members of a relief camp, were walking to a market when an armed group captured them. The group was reportedly trying to avenge the death of a young Hmar woman who was allegedly killed by a Meitei vigilante group. The Hmars, although listed as a scheduled tribe, are part of the larger Kuki-Chin-Mizo tribal group.
There are also economic problems. Jiribam is a major entry point from Assam. It has a mixed population of Bengali-speaking Muslims, Meiteis and Hmars, while a railway head, the first in Manipur, and a major highway have made it a commercial hub. Various political groups and competing non-state armed groups have long struggled for control here. It is within such complex frameworks that the ongoing conflict must be understood.
The impact of the Manipur tragedy appears to be limited to the Northeast. It has not become a live electoral or political issue across India. While it warrants a few punishments in political campaigns across the country and stirring talk by opposition lawmakers in parliament when issues flare up, it occasionally attracts scathing editorials, commentary and news reports in the media. Top officials and political leaders in Delhi remain engaged and deeply concerned at times, but the lack of a long-term strategy is visible.
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