Countries in East Africa face a bleak outlook for 2025, with predictive data showing the potential for increased violence and displacement. And the numbers indicate that it may not really matter whether your country is free, partially free, or an autocracy.
According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Conflict Index, the entire Horn of Africa and its environs is a region of concern, with countries such as Sudan now labeled as having ‘extreme’ cases of violence.
Others include Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are considered “high” risk areas where violence could explode at any time.
The data published this week was compiled by Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, the president and CEO of ACLED, and Katayoun Kishi, the head of data science at ACLED. Both have a background in comparative politics and political violence.
Based on trends since 2020, global expectations are that the number of violent incidents is likely to continue to increase. For example, four years ago the world witnessed 104,371 incidents of violence. This year they are approaching 200,000, resulting in at least 233,000 deaths.
In the Horn of Africa, actual data on deaths are often scarce or underreported, but in the case of Sudan, at least 20,000 deaths have occurred as a result of direct violence or the lack of humanitarian aid blocked by violence.
The war, involving the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has resulted in the displacement of at least 11 million people, of whom around 9.1 million are now in overcrowded camps, according to humanitarian organizations. It is not the only source of displacement.
In November, the Internal Displacement in Africa: An Overview of Trends and Developments (2009-2023) report from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) reported that Africa was hosting 35 million people who had lost their homes to wars or natural disasters, 80 percent. of which was concentrated in just five countries.
More than 29 million people have been displaced in the Horn due to conflict and climate-related risks, mainly in Sudan and the DRC.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said it needed $9.8 billion to tackle the humanitarian crisis.
Floods and droughts had played a role, but most of the people forced to leave their homes were fleeing violence, the report said. Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, DRC and Ethiopia had experienced displacement from both violence and disasters, while Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda had seen people flee their homes to escape disasters. Experts say some causes may not be solved by one country.
“Preventing displacement and helping people rebuild their lives requires not only short-term relief, but also long-term investments,” said Alexandra Bilak, director of IDMC, commenting on the data.
“To reverse the trends and keep the promise of the Kampala Convention alive over the next fifteen years, governments must redouble their commitment to tackling the root causes of displacement through peacebuilding, climate action and sustainable development.”
He referred to the African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons, which was adopted in Kampala in 2021, the first ever treaty to protect people fleeing their homes but remaining in their countries and therefore not under the jurisdiction of the African Union. UN refugee agency.
However, in the Horn, these displacements have led to overcrowding and limited food security. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), 64.8 million people are considered food insecure as of November.
This figure is down from 65 million in October, which is attributed to improved food supplies following heavy rains in some Igad Member States.
But the erratic weather means 35 million people in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda are at risk.
“Extreme weather and climate change, which are now more severe and frequent, are the leading causes of food insecurity in the region. The agriculture and livestock sector is dominated by rain-fed agriculture and the changing climate disproportionately impacts vulnerable groups,” the report said, but also blamed protracted armed conflict and violence, political unrest and insecurity for causing hungry.
What does 2025 look like for the region? Experts say there may be more, not fewer, violent incidents. The ACLED index predicts the overall global situation: “By early 2025, conflict events are expected to increase by 15 percent due to increased bombings and battles, resulting in approximately 20,000 reported fatalities per month.”
Ugandans cross a flooded bridge connecting Lira, Pader and Kitgum while their vehicles failed to cross both sides of the river in Lira.
Photo credit: Reuters
But it is fair to say that the extent of the violence will largely be determined by the way in which specific conflict actors commit violence in multiple places.
In eastern DRC, for example, it will depend on how the mediation peace talks between Rwanda and DRC go. Or, for Sudan, whether RSF and SAF continue their great position.
Levels of violence are expected to remain very high in 2025 compared to recent historical norms, and a 20 percent annual increase is likely, ACLED researchers predicted. And it doesn’t matter whether a country is more democratic or closed.
In 2024, for example, countries that had been relatively stable in the past exploded into violence. In Kenya, protests led by Generation Z left more than 60 dead, according to data collected by local human rights watchdogs. Most deaths were related to police brutality.
That means living in a democracy may not be an insurance policy against conflict, ACLED warned, especially since recent data has shown that conflict is as common in poor neighborhoods as in partially free countries.
“Most conflicts now also take place in middle-income countries, and it is growing more strongly in middle- and high-income countries. In short: more development and democracy do not limit violence. Conflicts adapt to political circumstances and change shape and direction depending on the agenda of the perpetrators,” the ACLED report said.
However, the conflict of the past year has also shown that having power is not the same as having control. Juntas have been in power in Sahel countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger for the past three years.
But some areas continued to experience violence committed by extremists. In the region, extremists, external mercenaries and local arrangements are creating “a chessboard of control and competition,” ACLED said.
That could be a sign of worse things to come for countries like Sudan, where mercenaries from as far away as Colombia have taken part.
This week, warring parties in Sudan defied the latest attempts by civil movements to curb escalating violence with a proposal for a political solution.
And it came after planeloads from the United Arab Emirates were seen landing on a runway controlled by RSF, a signal from outside players along the way.
Violence in Sudan has defied at least five ceasefire bids from mediators. The latest data shows that more than half of Khartoum’s hospitals are in ruins.
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