When I was a student in the 2000s, I was actively involved in anti-immigrant raids that organized churches, unions and community groups to alleviate the effects of the crisis. then-President Bush’s national enforcement actions. We delivered resources such as clothing, food and money to affected families in Minnesota and Iowa, and provided Know Your Rights Training for undocumented workers on what to do when Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents come to their homes.
Since then we have learned two things.
First, enforcement measures—that is, mass arrests, detentions, and deportations—have failed to stem the flow of undocumented migrants entering the US. The Bush-era deportation machine couldn’t stem the flow of people moving north, nor the lack of opportunity as a result of the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Deportations during Trump’s first term paralleled what Bush didbut failed to reach Obama-era levels in terms of numbers. Still, COVID-19 – no mass arrests – caused the decrease in the number of border crossings, both illegal and legal. Crossings increased after the pandemic, with political and economic disasters in Central America and Venezuela pushing people north.
The second thing we learned is how to play defense.
In fact, in addition to remembering how to prepare immigrant communities for raids, groups like the one I was a part of also grew to include politicians and lawyers who, over the years, drafted sanctuary ordinances across the country that proved effective when Trump was there for the first time. current. Accordingly, the tools of Trump’s mass deportation plan are well known and his fantasy of addressing our ongoing immigration crisis by ramping up arrests will fail.
Before we parse the details, let’s make one thing clear: Trump’s immigration policies are mostly about fear-mongering, with little serious substance. Just listen to the upcoming ‘Border Czar’, former ICE director Tom Homan, who promised:shock and awe” – the phrase used to inaugurate the US war of aggression against Iraq in 2003 – to describe the new administration’s approach to immigration policy.
Beyond the bombast and terror, we can expect the Biden-era policies to be the same humanitarian parole for asylum seekers from Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela, will be withdrawn. Restrictions on ICE regarding arrest priorities will also be lifted. like Trump did when he was first president. The President-elect has already said that his “Stay in MexicoThe policy will return, meaning anyone trying to enter the United States to seek asylum will be unable to stay in the country while awaiting a court date. Trump will also seek resources from Congress to build a nonsensical wall that people desperately trying to enter the United States will climb, undermine, or run around. Funds will also be sought to hire additional Border Patrol agents and ICE officers.
Of the many problems Trump’s deportation machine will face, we’ll start with this last one: personnel. Simply put, people don’t want to comply with Trump’s wishes. In this regard, nothing has changed since 2017, when he ordered the hiring of 5,000 additional agents to patrol the border. In 2018, only 118 people answered the call.
There is also a price tag attached to arresting and deporting the almost 12 million undocumented immigrants in the US, with estimates estimating the cost of mass deportation more than $315 billioncausing the economy to shrink between 4% and 7%. Unphased, Trump has said that mass deportations “have no price tag.”
Trump may regret these words, because the government will have to spend a lot of time in addition to money.
The reason is that the US is a federal system in which states and cities can and have created shrine policies. These ordinances, which are popular with the policestipulate that local police carry out their daily work of providing security without cooperating with federal immigration authorities to arrest and deport undocumented immigrants. In practical terms for immigrant justice, sanctuary policies are mucking up the deportation machine, leaving the federal government to do its job alone. Despite what ill-informed critics claim, instead of allowing a climate of murder and chaos, local police are allowing local police to collaborate with federal agents when someone commits a violent crime.
There is also the idea that the military will be called in to detain undocumented migrants Trump has mentioned.
The fear campaign is shown in full here. I mean, it’s scary to think that soldiers would turn on undocumented people living all over the country. But if we think about it, the military does not have any special information about the whereabouts of migrants. So should we expect to see military vehicles driving through city streets as soldiers point their guns at people they suspect are in the country illegally? Will the army storm and arrest farms across the country? half of essential workers without status Who ensures that the food system functions? What will it look like when soldiers in camouflage arrest middle-aged workers picking lettuce?
Regardless of the extent to which Trump implements mass arrests, he will certainly whine and complain about sanctuary policies, threatening the politicians who uphold them, just as he did during his first term. And as with his first term, many politicians will resist. Governors Nieuwsom And Pritzker are already preparing.
In areas outside the jurisdiction of the reservation, arrests may increase. This happened during Trump’s first run in power, especially in places like Florida’s Miami-Dade County, where his sanctuary policy was repealed.
The problem here is that the immigration courts are woefully under-resourced and reporting a backlog 3 million cases. Some believe doubling the number of judges will help address these cases – but by 2032. Mass arrests will only further confuse the system. Meanwhile, immigration lawyers are adept at defending their clients and taking the time to explore how people can change their status, such as if people have been victims of domestic violence or witnessed a crime.
This will be the real result of Trump’s deportation plans – not a mass removal of people, but massive delays and waste of both Americans’ time and money.
But what is most important in this discussion are our networks of immigrant movements. Before and during Trump’s first term, this movement built a kind of underground railroad, connecting immigrants to churches, legal resources and meals when needed. And most importantly, for years this movement has provided the one thing that Trump and his lackeys have worked so hard to steal from immigrant communities: hope. That is, I hope there will be a better day for migrants and their allies to put pressure on serious politicians to make real reforms, instead of being terrorized and living in fear.
Until that day comes, we will fight on.
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